The occupation of the Peninsula would subsequently be a heavy economic liability. This operation therefore appears likely, only in order to counter or forestall action by ourselves or the Americans. (ii) Through North African Ports against Egypt from the West, possibly in conjunction with an attack through Turkey. We believe that the Germans will attempt to maintain and exploit their position in North Africa, and for this purpose reinforce Rommel with the forces necessary for this. The presence of strong air forces in the Central Mediterranean area would serve to neutralise Malta and protect communications with Tripoli.